Editor’s Note: Turkiye at the Heart of Global Disorder Challenges 

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Editor’s Note: Turkiye at the Heart of Global Disorder Challenges 

Editor’s Note: Turkiye at the Heart of Global Disorder Challenges


By N. SELIN SENOCAK 

August 2022


Since the war in Ukraine Turkiye has gained great importance on the World chessboard from a geostrategic point of view. Turkiye has always been at the heart of international issues from the times of the Ottoman Empire till this very day. Istanbul has always been at the heart of the war waged by secret services of foreign countries. It is not insignificant that one of the first James Bond movies “From Russia with Love” was filmed in Istanbul, without forgetting that the Mossad was created in the same city. Istanbul is not only the crossroads of civilizations but also the meeting point of intelligence services, hence the importance of Turkiye in international issues. Turkiye finds in spite of itself in the middle of these conflicts, as was the case last month between the Iranian and Israeli intelligence services, where the operation was foiled thanks to the professionalism of Turkish services (MIT).

War is not only waged on the ground with conventional weapons but is especially powerful in other ways, due in large part to this new era of technology. The underground war is the one that will deter the adversary with the use of covert intelligence operations, cyber-attacks, manipulation, and dissemination of information through the media, propaganda with fake news and economic restrictions. The Ukrainian war brings together all these parameters that define both conventional and unconventional warfare.

President Erdogan has gained great experience in international issues during his 20 years of rule. Despite the attack on the patriotic feelings of the Turkish people, he is able to unscrupulously conduct “U-Turn diplomacy” for the economic interest of the country as was the case with the United Arab Emirates, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Russia is a strategic ally of Turkiye and relations have intensified since the war in Ukraine. Turkey keeps itself at an equal distance from NATO and Russia but the balance could tip in favour of Russia in the years to come. It is this strategy which has enabled Turkiye, through the initiative of President Erdogan, to be the main actor and the initiator of the “grain corridor deal” which will relieve the current world food crisis. A diplomatic success that positions Turkey on the international scene as one of the main players in the resolution of global crises.

The war in Ukraine has highlighted the political bias that exists in the integrity of the European Union which has weakened considerably. Anti-Russian sanctions have not shaken Russia but Europe has already lost four governments while there is an ongoing economic and political crisis. Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is suffering and it could spell trouble for the whole continent. German retail sales slumped by 8.8% in June compared with the same month a year ago, according to preliminary data from the country’s Federal Statistics Office. This makes it the biggest drop since officials started keeping records in 1994. German Foreign Minister  Baerbock, even warned of the possibilities of a popular revolt in her country in the event of a gas shortage. The situation is getting worse in other European countries as well. This clearly shows that Europe’s positioning and sanctions with these multiple provocations against Russia has backfired, it has somehow shot “a bullet at its feet”.

Russia has not been  isolated as was expected by Western countries, on the contrary it is welcomed with open arms by the nations of the Arab League and African countries without forgetting its strong ties with the BRICS countries.

The United States has also been weakened even if it is not affected as much as Europe by this war. Inflation in the USA is at a 40-year high. According to a government report released, inflation has hit 9.1 percent in the 12 months leading up to June. The IMF has announced an unprecedented global economic recession coming in the following months. With the country’s economic and social crisis, President Biden is at rock bottom and risks experiencing great shock during the mid-term elections. The United States should get used to the idea of a multipolar world and the balance of world power, if they do not want to sink into obscurity.

In this global chaos where the New World Order is transforming and changing the Hemisphere, Turkiye remains at the heart of these issues. President Erdogan is at a low point in terms of his popularity in internal politics and according to the polls his place as President of the Republic risks escaping him in the upcoming elections. However, the actions he is currently taking regarding this international crisis increases his esteem with his constituents. The Presidential elections of 2023 will depend on the ability of President Erdogan to counter the global economic recession.

As I previously mentioned in my March editorial, the Black Sea is a cursed sea and inhospitable to strangers and intruders. The Black Sea crisis has become a global crisis where all countries without exception are hit by its curse. It is through effective diplomatic negotiations and not conflict escalation that we can bring peace and appeasement in order to solve this global crisis.

 

 

 

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